With the 2028 presidential election set for November 7, 2028, recent surveys conducted in November 2025 provide an initial snapshot of potential candidates and voter sentiments. These early polls, taken nearly three years before the vote, emphasize name recognition and current political dynamics over definitive support. President Donald Trump’s influence remains a key factor in the Republican field, while Democrats face a more scattered landscape following their 2024 setbacks.
Democratic Primary: Harris and Newsom Vie for Top Spot in National Surveys
A Morning Consult poll from November 7-9, 2025, among 984 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, shows Kamala Harris at 29 percent, Gavin Newsom at 20 percent, Pete Buttigieg at 8 percent, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 7 percent. This reflects stasis for Harris since August 2025, with Newsom’s support holding steady after earlier gains.
National averages as of late November 2025 place Newsom at 23.6 percent, Harris at 21.5 percent, and Buttigieg at 9.4 percent. State-level variations highlight regional strengths: Newsom leads in Alaska, California, Maine, Nevada with an 18-point margin, and Ohio. He ties with Ocasio-Cortez at 17 percent each in Vermont, where Buttigieg trails at 18 percent. Buttigieg tops surveys in Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Texas, with Newsom placing third in Florida and North Carolina, and 2.1 points behind in Texas.
A Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll from November 18-19, 2025, among 2,112 New Hampshire registered voters, has Buttigieg at 28 percent, Newsom at 24 percent, and Harris at 6 percent. Other candidates like J.B. Pritzker and Cory Booker each garner 4 percent, with Josh Shapiro at 3 percent.
These results indicate a fragmented Democratic field, with no candidate commanding a decisive majority. Undecided voters range from 25 percent to 35 percent across surveys, pointing to uncertainty as the party rebuilds.
Republican Primary: Vance Emerges as Commanding Frontrunner
The Morning Consult poll from November 7-9, 2025, among 936 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, gives JD Vance 42 percent support, up 5 points from 37 percent in August 2025. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marco Rubio each stand at 3 percent.
In New Hampshire, the Saint Anselm poll shows Vance at 57 percent among GOP voters, far ahead of Rubio at 9 percent, Ron DeSantis at 7 percent, and Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, and Tulsi Gabbard each at 4 percent.
Vance’s strong performance underscores party cohesion around policies emphasizing secure borders, economic nationalism, and energy independence. Low single-digit support for alternatives suggests limited interest in diverging from the current administration’s direction.
General Election Hypotheticals: Tight Races Reflect Polarized Electorate
The Morning Consult survey from November 14-16, 2025, among 2,201 registered voters, has Harris at 43 percent against Vance’s 42 percent, and Vance at 42 percent against Newsom’s 41 percent. These one-point margins fall within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Vance shows slight advantages among independents in these matchups, potentially bolstering Republican prospects. The close contests mirror the nation’s divisions, with factors like economic conditions and foreign policy likely to influence future shifts.
What These Early Numbers Mean
Nearly three years from election day, these polls capture familiarity with candidates more than committed votes. Historical patterns show early leads can erode as campaigns intensify, new entrants emerge, and events like the 2026 midterms reshape the landscape. High undecided rates leave ample room for movement, driven by developments such as inflation trends or international stability.
Vance’s consistent dominance signals robust backing for continuing America First priorities that focus on American workers and national security. Democratic disarray, with multiple contenders splitting support, may complicate their efforts to present a unified alternative. As the field clarifies, these initial indicators suggest Republican unity provides an early advantage in the extended path ahead.